How deep into our pockets must we delve to buy a first impression of Ian Fleming's most iconic book - Casino Royale? Are prices still going up, and are there still bargains to be had?
Ten years ago – long before I launched www.jamesbondfirsteditions.co.uk - the frustrated collector that I was wanted a first impression copy of Casino Royale so badly that I remember asking Henley-based bookseller, Jonkers, to keep a look out for an example – any example – even one they wouldn’t normally touch.
Why? Well, primarily it was the one book I was missing, and so as long as anything they found wasn’t falling to pieces (and even if it was fairly tatty), I knew I would probably buy it.
But there’s another reason I wanted this book – and it’s for a reason that I believe resonates with many: seeing the inexorable rise in prices of average-to-good condition copies, and with it my portentous feeling that unless I tracked down a copy of this title soon, I might miss my chance entirely and be priced out of the market for good.
Rising prices – yes?
The fact Casino Royale remains a book that many collectors will attempt to buy in almost any condition, starkly reveals just how this iconic book – print run of just 4,728 (survival rates likely to be significantly less) – remains so coveted that it will attract buyers willing to compromise their condition requirements significantly.
But in the near decade that has since passed, many collectors I talk to today all seem to have the same sense of despondency about ever owning a first impression Casino Royale.
But is this hopelessness true?
What does it actually cost to acquire a copy of this iconic book in 2024?
Is it harder now to own one than it was a decade ago?
Is there any chance that a bargain can still turn up?
A study in prices
Last week we debated what a 'bargain' was, and at the end of that piece I promised I would follow this up by trying to show you how prices of Casino Royale have been tracking.
Well, now that it’s my business to buy and sell first impression Ian Fleming books, I take a very close interest in prices, particularly Casino Royale, and where I can, I document selling prices and known buying prices all across the world to determine trends in prices.
So what's to report?
The picture is...complicated!
The honest answer to this question is that against a general trend of upward prices, there is also some haphazard pricing - which should give us all hope.
It means that while prices show some stellar results, the overall curve is still punctuated with some real surprises.
Before we get into the detail of this though, here’s the overall trend as I've see it from 2010 onwards:
2010:
In February 2010, Heritage Auctions sold the first edition pictured left (with the rarer first state jacket), for what now seems like steal of a price of $11,950 (and that’s including the 19.5% premium).
The conversion rate at the time, that would see this working out at £7,400.
Converted to today's prices, that would be £11,890.
This really was a steal, because also in 2010, we see were starting to see this title (and state) regularly sell for much more.
Bonhams (see picture below, left), sold this very good condition first state jacketed example (without The Times review) for £11,400 including premium (£18,320 in today’s money).
Dominic Winter, meanwhile, also sold a similar condition example (above, right) in 2010 for £19,000 – some £4,000 above estimate.
These plus others I have records for point to an average auction (not retail) price of around £15,000 in 2010.
Mid 2010s
By the middle of the 2010s, we were already seeing the next big step-up in minimum price starting to be regularly reached – with uninscribed prices regularly starting to break the £20,000 mark.
In 2012 (part of the Hirschhorn Collection of Modern First Editions), a Casino Royale was also sold for $30,000.
In 2015 Bloomsbury Auctions sold a first impression of Casino Royale for £22,000.
At the time this was reported to be an auction record, although in 2014 Dreweatts & Bloomsbury Auctions’ also sold a first impression Casino Royale for £24,180 (it’s unknown as to whether that was excluding or including premium).
This lesser copy (left) was sold by Bonhams in 2017. Despite having repairs, a crease along the lower front, a stain and ownership inscription, it still sold for £20,000 including premium.
In 2017 a first state example of Casino Royale sold for £22,500 through Thomson Roddick Auctioneers, while this other first impression (above, right), – reportedly Vivian Leigh’s own personal copy (but not inscribed), sold for £30,000.
2020s
Above: Sold in 2019 for £55,000 (including premium) - then a world record auction price
In 2019 the above pictured copy of Casino Royale – albeit inscribed by Fleming himself [with the words “Alastair, from the Author, Read & Burn”] – was sold for what was regarded as world record auction fee of £55,000, smashing its estimate of £18,000.
While this high price might be an exception, from 2020s onwards, we see examples consistently reaching what appears to be new heights.
Above left is this £37,500-realised price from Sotheby’s in 2021 (275% above estimate, even with restoration, owner inscription and toning to jacket).
A year later, the same auction house sold this example (above right), with a 'second state jacket' for an eye-watering £32,500.
What is this telling us?
Outwardly, the indicative trend is that Casino Royale has been, and continues to demonstrate significant price inflation.
Today it is impossible to buy a Casino Royale first state in good condition today for anywhere near 2010 money.
By purely looking at good condition uninscribed books currently for sale (and with a 1st state jacket), Casino Royale now attracts a 2024 average bookseller asking price of between £45-47,000.
Even if you could get a 10% discount, that’s still more than £40,000.
Outside of this average there are also some other, stunningly priced examples:
Raptis Rare Books is currently offering a signed Casino Royale for just shy of £79,000.
West Hull Rare Books has this book (see picture, left) - with NO Fleming signature, for a staggering £72,500.
It claims it is the best condition book it’s handled in the last 25 years.
This is – I believe – the most expensive non-Fleming signed book currently on the market.
Where it’s complicated though...
The trouble is however, that within this overall, broad picture of gradually increasing prices, there are significant ‘wobbles’ that can also be observed.
These are sold prices that indicate values are not so fixed that there isn’t the odd oscillation.
And for those hoping to pick up ‘bargains’ this should create some cause for celebration.
As an example of this, just take a look at this book (above) – a first impression – sold only last year at auction for a hammer price of ‘just’ £4,000.
OK, it’s a second state jacket (with The Times review), but this price seems exceptionally 'cheap'. [In inverted commas!]
Meanwhile, this book (above, left), offered at an estimate of £10-£15,000 this year, did not sell (at auction) at all - failing to meet its reserve. And neither did this set of books next to it (offered for auction in 2022). Not only did it feature a first edition Casino Royale (albeit with a second state jacket) – but it also came with the rest of the James Bond books in first edition. The opening price for all of them was £40,000 - a price easily reached by just Casino Royale on its own in recent years.
These non-sellers haven't been the only ones.
In the last two years I’ve probably seen about three of four Casino Royale books that have failed to sell at auction, not meeting their (typically) £10k reserve.
While some books have failed to sell, others have really only just scraped by:
This book - above left - (sold in June 2022), only just sold for its £8,000 reserve. It also had a first issue jacket. It was not in terrible condition, and only had an owner’s name inside to really count against it. Historical trends would suggest this is also ‘cheap’.
The book next to it - above, right - (also with a first issue jacket), also sold recently for ‘just’ £6,800.
What’s going on?
Does this indicate the market is not so buoyant anymore (especially with the absence of a new film for so long)?
Are there bargains to be had?
It’s hard to tell.
At the same time as there being these outlier (cheaper) books, there are some very punchy prices still being realised. [I’m using auction prices typically, as these do indicate actual sales, rather than asking prices].
Take the £50,000 [then add fees!] paid for this (above) very good condition example in 2022 – albeit inscribed by the author to Paul Galico. The starting price was £15,000.
A few months ago this not great second impression example still sold for a hammer price of more than £4,000 – double its estimate.
I’m keeping a particularly close eye on this book (or should I say jacket - the condition of which is very distinctive).
I have more than a suspicion that somewhere down the line, this jacket will suddenly materialize on a first impression book.
I believe it’s been bought for the purpose of using the jacket to switch onto a jacketless first.
Sitting books:
As well as some books selling for below expectation prices, what I have also noticed is that books offered for sale by booksellers are sitting on dealers shelves for a long, long time.
This potentially indicates their prices are not in line with what customers are wanting to pay.
This first state jacketed book - above - (not in terrible condition at all), has been for sale from the same vendor for more than a few years now – at an unchanged price of £18,000. I know of several other examples currently up for sale that have been up for sale for a significant period of time (5-years plus).
Perhaps because booksellers fear holding expensive books that aren't selling for too long that some are now apparently 'jointly owning' the same book, marketing it separately, but then presumably taking half of the profit from whoever sells it.
This is a trend I've noticed just recently.
Have a look at the images below. They're from Peter Harrington and Whitmore Rare Books. On first glance it looks like both have a Casino Royale up for sale. No surprises here.
But a closer inspection of their websites shows they are both selling exactly the same book:
Whitmore's Casino Royale (above left) - its the same book Peter Harrington lists (above right)
The tell-tale marker is both pictures showing exactly the same lower-right-hand corner creasing.
I emailed Whitmore direct to ask why they seemed to be selling the same book as Peter Harrington.
The reply was as follows: "We purchased this copy in partnership with Peter Harrington and are both representing the same copy. The book is currently in their shop in London, but we also take it to fairs and have it available in our shop from time to time. We are not affiliated with Peter Harrington besides being collegial with them and working together occasionally on higher-end material, like this."
Spotting books gives a clue about where prices are:
For the above reason alone, it's important would-be buyers of a Casino Royale start looking at what's up for sale, and what's previously sold to see if the same book is being marketed elsewhere, or if it's recently been sold before and being re-flipped relatively quickly.
Having this sort of information to hand could give you some bargaining power.
The good thing about most copies of Casino Royales is that they are relatively easy to identify, as most usually have at least one or two differentiating marks unique to them.
So, if you want to start taking a look at how prices are changing for yourself, a good place to start is to notice any books that have very distinct issue points – such as a tear in a certain place, or folds, or marks to the fact of the book, that mean you can spot it again if it crops up for sale somewhere else.
This leather-bound 1st impression Casino Royale (above, left), is a good example of this – rebound, very identifiable, and therefore easy to track if/when it comes up for sale.
Unless there is another one of these out there (I doubt it), I've noted that this rebind sold at auction for £4,200 in October 2022 (approximately £5,500 including fees) - see picture top left.
As can be seen in the picture next to it, it’s now (currently) up for sale for £7,500 by dealer James Pickard.
Assuming he was the buyer and the book hasn’t been bought or sold by anyone else in the meantime, he’s looking for a straight £2k profit on his outlay. It will be interesting to see how long this is up for sale for.
So - where do we stand now with Casino Royale?
What I hope I've been able to show, is that there's no doubting the fact Casino Royale is a book that - over the last 10-15 years certainly - has only gotten more expensive to try and buy - and possibly it's now beyond the means of most.
Values have also increased much faster than inflation - with current average prices eclipsing what similar condition books bought 15 years ago would cost in today's money.
Below are some further 'sold-price' images of other (not so-far referenced) Casino Royale examples, from the immediate past.
As the pictures show, they continue to prove that we're now solidly in the £20k+ auction price range to acquire this important Fleming book (which means closer to £30k after auction fees are factored in). Prices would be considerably more from actual booksellers.
The two large images below were of Casino Royales sold in 2022 and 2023 respectively; the two smaller images below them are of Casino Royales sold in 2023 (bottom left) and 2021 (bottom right).
These prices are eye-wateringly high for most people.
But does that mean bargains can't be found?
We've already seen above that bargain do exist.
OK, it all depends on what your definition of 'bargain' means (see last week's blog) - but if it means 'under market expectations', then I still think there are sales to be found.
We have't spoken about jacketless first impression Casino Royales.
A few weeks ago I saw a very good condition one advertised for £3,750. It was gone the next time I looked. Most jacketless Casino Royale first impressions start in the £4-5k range easily. This was quite rightly snapped up, as it seemed to be under-priced.
Every so often, books will go under the radar, and if you look hard enough and consistently enough, perhaps you will find one.
Here is a first impression - with first state jacket - that sold very recently in 2021, for what I would consider an under-expectation price:
Dominic Winter charges 20% commission, meaning the final price for this book was exactly £15,000.
Was it Covid-impacted? Maybe. But for this title remember, and this state of jacket and its overall condition, I would say that this, seems 'cheap' (again understanding that all things are relative).
So, will these books only continue to go up? Should you buy one now, if you can?
The historical trend says prices will continue to climb - perhaps as each additional year brings extra perceived rarity.
Of course, price also depends on desirability.
So far, my observations tell me that the number of Casino Royales that seem to go for less than one would expect them to is still much smaller than the number that exceed expectations.
That bodes well for anyone who already owns a copy, or is thinking of buying one. And, on the off-chance that a copy can go un-noticed, and be picked up for less than what seems to be the market value, that's also good news too.
Of course, we can never quite be sure what the future holds. But for now I would say owning a first impression Casino Royale is still a safe bet.
As ever, it's just finding one at a price you can live with that will always be the big problem.
PS Just in case you're wondering: Jonkers never did get back to me.
But I do now have my own personal copy!
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